Advancement · Data & Impact

Next fall’s sixth grade
is this fall’s fifth.

Enter fall counts by grade for the last few years. The page measures how much of each class comes back a grade higher, carries every class forward, and shows the year a grade gains or loses a section.

Open the toolWhat you get
$12one-time · every device you sign in on
Buy · $12

Included with Caveat Classroom and Whole-school licenses. Or get it in the Grant writer’s desk, $49 for 32 items.

The enrollment tool

The worked example is a made-up K–8 school with six fall counts, 552 students down to 486. Type over it with your own numbers, or start blank.

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What you get

Advancement · Data & ImpactAlso for Advancement · School Operations$12 · included with Classroom and Whole-school licenses

What you finish with
The year-to-year trend in total enrollment; the grade progression ratio for every step between grades in every pair of years, with an average, the range and a flag where a step loses or gains students; a grade-by-grade projection for one to ten years with low and high scenarios and a chart; any one class followed across the table; and the sections each grade needs at your class size, with the first year a section opens or closes. Prints a report and downloads the table as a spreadsheet.
Who it is for
Heads of school, principals, business managers, admissions and enrollment staff, charter and district planners, and board members preparing a budget or staffing plan. Counts only: no student names or records.
Format
Browser tool. Type counts or paste a block from a spreadsheet; prints a report; downloads the projection as a spreadsheet (.csv); export and import a file.
Access
$12 one-time, yours on every device you sign in on; the tool opens once you are signed in with it. Included with Caveat Classroom and Whole-school licenses. Also in the Grant writer’s desk ($49) and the Advancement Suite pass ($99), and 1 more bundle. Everything you type stays in this browser; nothing is sent to Caveat.
Where it lives
The Data & Impact space in Caveat Advancement; also listed for School Operations (the same tool answers the catalog entry Enrollment Trend Analysis).
Support
Questions, a correction or a request: team@caveatacademic.com.

How to use it

  1. Set the lowest and highest grade and the first fall in the table, then enter the count for every grade and year. Use the same official count each year.
  2. Open Ratios to see how much of each class returns a grade higher. Choose how many recent ratios to average and whether recent years count more.
  3. Open Projection. Choose how to fill the entry grade, set how far the low and high scenarios swing, and follow one class across the table.
  4. Open Sections, set the largest class size, and read where a grade gains or loses a section.
  5. Print the report or download the spreadsheet for the budget meeting. Come back each fall, add the new count and compare.

Open the tool

How the projection is worked out

The grade progression ratio method, also called cohort survival, with the arithmetic the page uses.

1 Three recent pairs of yearsGrade 5 · 2023–2466÷ = 0.818Grade 6 · 2024–2554Grade 5 · 2024–2557÷ = 0.842Grade 6 · 2025–2648Grade 5 · 2025–2661÷ = 0.852Grade 6 · 2026–2752Average of thethree ratios0.8180.8420.852++÷ 30.838average ratiofor the step 5 to 62 Carry this fall’s class up a gradeGrade 5 · 2026–2760× 0.838Grade 6 · 2027–285050.3 before rounding.This fall’s grade 5 becomesnext fall’s grade 6.1 Three recent pairs of yearsGr 5 · 2023–2466÷ = 0.818Gr 6 · 2024–2554Gr 5 · 2024–2557÷ = 0.842Gr 6 · 2025–2648Gr 5 · 2025–2661÷ = 0.852Gr 6 · 2026–27522 Average, then carry the class upAverage of the three ratios(0.818 + 0.842 + 0.852) ÷ 3 = 0.838Gr 5 · 2026–2760× 0.838Gr 6 · 2027–285050.3 unrounded
The worked example’s step from grade 5 to grade 6. Each ratio is one fall’s grade 6 divided by the fall before’s grade 5. Their average, 0.838, times this fall’s 60 fifth graders gives 50 sixth graders for 2027–28.

Ratios

For each step between two grades the page divides this fall’s count in the higher grade by last fall’s count in the grade below. NCES defines this progression rate as “the proportion that enrollment in grade j in year t is of enrollment in grade j − 1 in year t − 1.” Under 1.00, students left between the two falls; over 1.00, more arrived than left.

The page averages the most recent ratios you choose, three unless you change it, either equally or with weights 1, 2, 3 so the latest pair of years counts most. A step with no history uses 1.00 and says so.

Projection, entry grade and scenarios

Next year’s count in a grade is this year’s count in the grade below times that step’s average ratio. The page carries unrounded numbers forward and rounds only what it shows, so a total can differ by one from the sum of the rounded grades.

The lowest grade has no class below it. Fill it with the average of the last three years, the latest year, a straight line through the years entered, or your own figures from births, preschool rosters or registrations.

The low and high scenarios move the entry grade by the percent you set and every ratio by the points you set. They are what-if cases, not confidence limits. Past ratios cannot see a new housing development, a school opening nearby or a boundary change; adjust for those by hand.

Sources

  1. National Center for Education Statistics. Projections of Education Statistics to 2011, Appendix A, Projection Methodology. U.S. Department of Education. The definition of the grade progression rate quoted above.
  2. National Center for Education Statistics. Projections of Education Statistics to 2030 (NCES 2024-034), Section 1, Elementary and Secondary Enrollment. “The grade progression rate method was used to project school enrollments.”
  3. Massachusetts School Building Authority. Enrollment Methodology. One public agency’s description of a cohort survival model that uses average grade-to-grade survival ratios and a birth-to-kindergarten ratio.

The worked example is made up. Its numbers are examples, including the class size of 25. A projection describes what happens if recent patterns continue; it is not a forecast of what will happen. The page keeps counts only, in this browser. Support: team@caveatacademic.com.