Vocations · Professional Development · Retirement

How long will
the savings last?

Type your savings, the first year’s withdrawal and a return. The calculator runs the balance year by year with withdrawals rising for inflation, shows when it would run out, and finds the starting amount that lasts the whole plan.

Run the scenarioWhat you get

The withdrawal scenario calculator

The worked example is made up: $600,000 at 65, taking 5 percent the first year. Nothing you type leaves this browser.

Loading the calculator. If nothing appears, turn on JavaScript.

What you get

Vocations · Professional DevelopmentFree

What you finish with
The withdrawal rate, the year and age the money runs out or the balance left, the sustainable starting withdrawal and a year-by-year table. It prints as a summary and downloads as a spreadsheet.
Who it is for
Adults planning for retirement, personal finance students, and families helping a parent plan.
Format
Browser calculator for a phone, tablet or computer, by touch or keyboard. Prints a summary; downloads a spreadsheet (.csv); export and import a file.
Access
Free. No account, no sign-in and nothing to install. Everything you type stays in this browser; nothing is sent to Caveat.
Where it lives
The Professional Development space in Caveat Vocations.
Support
Questions, a correction or a request: team@caveatacademic.com.

How to use it

  1. Type the savings you expect at retirement.
  2. Type what you plan to take in the first year, after Social Security and pensions.
  3. Keep inflation near 2 to 3 percent.
  4. Try a cautious return and a hopeful one.
  5. Compare the sustainable start with your plan.

Run the scenario

How the scenario runs

Withdraw, grow, repeat.

The worked example: $600,000 at 65, 5% first-year withdrawalYear 1$30,0005% of $600,000Then+2.5% a yearwithdrawals keep paceReturns5% a yearon what is leftResultyear 27when the money runs outThe worked example: $600,000 at 65, 5% first-year withdrawalYear 1$30,0005% of $600,000Then+2.5% a yearwithdrawals keep paceReturns5% a yearon what is leftResultyear 27when the money runs out
Rising withdrawals against a fixed return: the balance holds for a while, then falls faster each year.

Year by year

Each year starts with a withdrawal; what is left earns the return. The withdrawal rises with inflation so it buys the same each year. While the return is above the withdrawal rate the balance can hold, but rising withdrawals eat into it until it falls faster each year.

What it leaves out

Real markets do not return the same every year. A fall early in retirement, while withdrawals are being taken, does lasting damage that a steady average hides; this is called sequence-of-returns risk. Taxes and fees reduce what you keep. Run a lower return to see a cautious case, and consider Social Security timing, which the Social Security Administration explains.

Sources

  1. Bengen, W. P. (1994). Determining withdrawal rates using historical data. Journal of Financial Planning, 7(4), 171–180.
  2. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Investor.gov. Compound interest and retirement planning tools (investor.gov).
  3. Social Security Administration. When to start receiving retirement benefits (ssa.gov).
  4. U.S. Department of Labor, Employee Benefits Security Administration. Taking the mystery out of retirement planning (dol.gov/ebsa).

The worked example is made up. An educational scenario, not financial advice. Your entries stay in this browser. Support: team@caveatacademic.com.